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2011 High
Council Issues
by
Major Stephen Court
The High Council meets to
select the next General during the shelf life of this JAC
issue.
We dug through some Salvation
Army Year Books of the past to get some context for where The
Army is today, to help position ourselves to overcome the
challenges and optimize the opportunities of the future.
These are the Year Book stats
for several western territories for both 1995 and 2010 (we're
the first to admit that Year Book stats are not consistently
accurate, but that is all we have, and they ARE official).
Here goes:
Corps
Canada
and Bermuda C+B 372 / 311 (about 17% decline);
Australia Eastern AE 208 / 174
(about 12% decline);
Denmark DEN 38 / 32 (around
17% decline);
France F 43 / 29 (about a
third decline);
New Zealand,
Fiji,
Tonga NZ 104 / 94 (nearly 1/10 decline);
Sweden SW 197 / 147 (1/4
decline);
Switzerland SWIT 97 / 65
(about 1/3 decline);
Norway NOR 124 / 111 (about
1/10 decline);
UK823/ 704 (maybe 14%
decline).
All nine territories shrank at
least 1/10 in number of corps (and a few fudged 2010 stats by
adding community service units).
Active Officers
C+B 1395 / 877 (more 1/3
decline or so - in hard numbers,
Canada
lost more officers than NZ AND
Sweden
currently have)
AE 692 / 520 (about 1/4
decline);
D 47 / 37 (nearly 1/4
decline);
F 126 / 72 (about 40%
decline);
NZ 422 / 316 (1/4 decline):
SW 236 / 174 (more than 1/4
decline);
SWIT 285 / 187 (more than 1/3
decline);
NOR 269 / 182 (about 1/3
decline);
UK1776 / 1247 (about 1/3
decline).
The best of the nine
territories only lost a QUARTER of the officer corps.
The worst lost hundreds of officers (only 15 years).
Cadets
C+B 86 / 35
AE 54 / 31
D 0 / 0
F 26 / 0
NZ 35 / 28
SW 4 / 12
SWIT 16 / 2
NOR 15 / 8
UK
94 / 79
Other than a heartening
reversal in
Sweden,
there are all significant drops in cadets.
Senior Soldiers
C+B 24643 / 18866 (about a 1/4
drop);
AE 14062 / 8698 (nearly 40%);
D 1573 / 960 (1/3 decline);
F 1061 / 919 (more than 1/10
decline);
NZ 6691 / 5565 (18% or so
decline);
SW 8556 / 5321 (about 37%
decline);
SWIT 4726 / 3030 (more than
40% decline);
NOR 8177 / 5515 (about 1/3
decline);
UK
48121 / 31575 (more than 1/3 decline).
ENORMOUS decline through these
territories, chopping tens of thousands of soldiers,
covenanted for life, from the Army.
Junior Soldiers
C+B 6613 / 3067 (about 55%);
AE 2883 / 490 (about 80%
decline);
D 115 / 12 (about 90%
decline):
F 84 / 80 (5% decline);
NZ 1255 / 718 (about 40%
decline);
SW 479 / 125 (more than 3/4
decline);
SWIT 482 / 379 (more than 20%
decline);
NOR 886 / 43 (95% decline);
UK
9325 / 5022 (about 45% decline).
These numbers are tragic,
nearly all more than 40% drops - and this projects to the
senior soldiers strength in coming years.
Some comments on those
numbers:
a. Thank God for the
significant advances in
Korea
and Africa
and
Pakistan
and parts of
Asia, and for incremental advance in
USA
and other areas. Without it we’d be slipping off the map.
b. Around 1995, the benchmark
for the comparison, Phil Wall started preaching about the
decline of the UKI territory and what might happen if it
continued. Well, it seems like not enough people were
listening, because UKI is in free fall over the 15-year
period.
c. During this period we
elected no African generals, nor did we appoint any Africans
to Western territorial commands. However, we did elect three
British Generals (all outstanding Salvationists). At some
point we need to ask what value experience in managing decline
has for leadership (in that NZF territory has produced a batch
of CSs; UKI continues to spurt out TCs/comms; C+B has made a
fairly recent international play in CSs - all despite a record
of constant, significant decline over the period).1
d. Who is going to be
accountable for this? Are the TYSs having to wear the Junior
Soldier stats around their necks every day at THQ? Are the TCs
wearing sackcloth and ashes over the bleeding of soldiers? Are
the DCs fasting and praying about how to reverse the decline
in corps? Are the Candidates Secretaries resourced and
supported in their recruiting? Someone has to step up and take
responsibility AND turn us around. (Here's an idea! If we
can't find any white-skinned people to do it, maybe we can
look in
Pakistan
and
Korea
and Africa
and
India
where the Army is aggressively advancing and appoint some of
them as TCs and DCs and TYSs and Candidates Secretaries and
Chief Secretaries instead of the somewhat steady stream of
decline managers).
e. The Army is better than
this. It deserves better than this. God certainly deserves
better than this. If you aren't uncomfortable reading this,
you should be, so ask the Lord to make you uncomfortable (and
to show you what you should do to help).
So, let’s see what happens
when we add 1960 numbers to the nine territories from above
AND five more sets of numbers: the old East Africa Territory
(now Kenya East, Kenya West, Tanzania, and Uganda Command),
Korea, Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), USA Eastern, and combined USA
(all four US Territories).
1960 1995 2010
Corps
Global 17126 / 14907 / 15478
C+B 384 / 372 / 311
AE 202 / 208 / 174
DEN 56 / 38 / 32
F 53 / 43 / 29
NZ 97 / 104 / 94
SW 275 / 197 / 147
SWIT 120 / 97 / 65
NOR 141 / 124 / 111
UK
1018 / 823 / 704
----
EA/K/U/Tan 171 / 413 /
ke340/kw331/u75/t65(901) (more than doubled in 15 years!)
K 68 / 203 / 247 (20% increase
in 15 years!)
R/Z 194 / 324 / 404 (1/4
increase in 15 years!)
USE 341 / 331 / 382 (16%
increase in 15 years)
USN 1109 / 1189 / 1252 (<1%
increase in 15 years)
Active Officers
Global 19692 / 17271 / 16938
C+B 1323 / 1395 / 877
AE 752 / 692 / 520
D 195 / 47 / 37
F 297 / 126 / 72
NZ 400 / 422 / 316
SW 904 / 236 / 174
SWIT 439 / 285 / 187
NOR 650 / 269 / 400
UK
2130 / 1776 / 1247
----
EA/K/U/Tan 370 / 699 /
ke422/kw446/u56/t126 (850) (>20% increase in 15 years!)
K 168 / 465 / 582 (1/4
increase in 15 years!)
R/Z 358 / 336 / 457 (more than
1/3 increase in 15 years!)
USE 1327 / 1050 / 1071
(marginal increase in last 15 but decrease in 50)
USN 3881 / 3571 / 3443
(marginal decrease)
Cadets
Global 997 / 1320 / 1126
C+B 86 / 35
A 54 / 31 /
D 0 / 0
F 26 / 0
NZ 35 / 28
SW 4 / 12
SWIT 16 / 2
NOR 15 / 8
UK
94 / 79
----
EA/K/U/Tan ? / 73 / k108/u24
K ? / 63 / 59 (under 10%
decrease in last 15 years)
R/Z ? / 56 / 40 (more than ¼
decrease in last 15)
USE ? / 101 / 72 (1/3 decrease
in last 15 years)
USN 201 / 387 / 262 (nearly
1/3 decrease in last 15 years)
Senior Soldiers
Global - ? / 797910 / 1122326
(40% increase in 15 years!)
C+B 24643 / 18,866
AE14,062 / 8698
D 1573 / 960
F 1061 / 919
NZ 6691 / 5565
SW 8556 / 5321
SWIT 4726 / 3030
NOR 8177 / 5515
UK
48121 / 31575
UK
9325 / 5022
----
EA/K/U/Tan ? / 138956 /
ke69554/kw113030/u5646/t5372 (193602) (39% increase in last 15
years!)
K ? / 34799 / 41723 (about 20%
increase in last 15 years)
R/Z ? / 63267 / 122513 (nearly
DOUBLED!)
USE ? / 18377 / 20975 (about
15% increase)
USN 81606/ 82010 (marginal
increase)
Junior Soldiers
Global - ? / 348885 / 378009
C+B 6613 / 3067
A2883 / 490
D115 / 12
F84 / 80
NZ1255 / 718
SW479 / 125
SWIT482 / 379
NOR886 / 43
UK48121 / 31575
----
EA/K/U/Tan ? / 162572 /
ke58126/kw122697/u6512/t3567 (189902) (about 17% increase in
15 years!)
K ? / 8692 / 6411 (more than ¼
decrease in 15 years)
R/Z ? / 19699 / 18882 (less
than 10% decrease)
USE ? / 8438 / 8116 (marginal
decrease)
USN ? / 35825 / 24902 (about
30% decrease!)
----
A lot can be said of these
stats. But for starters, praise the Lord on the 40% increase
in soldiers in the last 15 years. Some might not like the
comments about leadership above (and we'll clarify that
General Clifton led the
Pakistan
Territory to 13% soldiers increase). But a lot of this 40% increase in soldiers
can be sourced to General Paul Rader, who challenged the Army
world for a million marching into the new millennium.2
It is interesting that he comes out of USE (where there
is statistically significant advance), led USW (which had
significant growth under his leadership, and served more than
two decades in Korea (see their fantastic advance above). So,
leaders have effect.
But, to initial comments:
1. Praise the Lord for every
person saved in the time period under scrutiny.
2. Glory to God for every
soldier fighting with covenanted zeal.
3. Thank the Lord for every
leader faithfully fulfilling God's purposes.
4. Credit to God for the
favour that the Army enjoys in relation to our warfare.
5. Obviously the non-western
countries are carrying our global advance.
India,
Pakistan,
Korea,
Kenya,
and
Zimbabwe,
among many others, are pushing the Gospel forward with
effectiveness.
6. They can't rest on their
laurels. Even though
Zimbabwe
has exploded in the last 15 years under consideration, it is
slipping in junior soldiers - a telling statistic if the
children are the future come early.
Korea
is slipping even more in junior soldiers. God help them
reverse that trend.
7. We have suggested, possibly
somewhat simplistically, that placing a Korean or African
leader in charge of a slipping western territory might be the
solution to problems. The only example we have of this is
Commissioner Peter Heidong Chang in USW, where there was
unusual, accelerated advance. That guarantees nothing with
other leaders. But proven ineffectiveness in leadership in a
certain theatre of war can strongly suggest more of the same
elsewhere (what is it they say about the geographic cure?).
Case study on leadership
effectiveness:
USA
1993-2003.
Context: 1993 1998 2003
Corps
USC - 280 / 281 / 281 -
stagnant
USE 327 / 367 / 438 -
significant expansion (Irwin / Noland)
USS 325 / 351 / 350 plateau
USW 222 / 289 / 298
significant expansion (Rader / Chang)
Cadets
USC 47 / 58 / 43 stagnant
USE 97 / 112 / 123 advance
USS 106 / 83 / 99 decline
USW 92 / 77 /55 significant
decline.
The point is that BOTH USE and
USW corps advance AND USS and USC stagnation cannot be
explained by cultural trends. Pin it either on good leadership
(USE/USW) or ineffective leadership (to varying degrees, in
the other territories). We're choosing to pin it on
Irwin/Noland/Rader/Chang's effective leadership. Leadership
can counter cultural trends. See solution f below.
SOLUTIONS?
So, those are the statistics.
They suggest some of the challenges of The Salvation
Army in coming decades.
Here are some suggested solutions:
Solution a. HQ is not
essentially a support or a facilitator or a resource. It is
for leadership. (yes, it can support/facilitate/resource, but
that is not its essential function). It should lead.
Solution b. accountability. In
the non-African centres of advance (e.g.
Korea
and
USA)
there is accountability. Leaders are required to 'do' certain
things and to 'report' on certain things.
Solution c. identity. We
should see The Salvation Army as a revolutionary movement of
covenanted warriors exercising holy passion to win the world
for Jesus. We are not a collection of independent corps or
divisions or territories. We are not a church or churches (see
Major Harold Hill's FOUR ANCHORS FROM THE STERN in JAC64). We
are ‘militant episcopalian’ (CO doesn't run an independent
corps but is part of a division led by a DC - etc.).
Solution d. universal embrace
of covenant. There are 1.2+ million senior soldiers and
378000+ junior soldiers around the world. If we all embrace
our SS and JS covenants then we not only reverse the
fragmentation and decline, but we unite to fight in an
unstoppable revolutionary force that will smash the enemy on
its head.
Solution e. holiness. I know
that this sounds facile. But JAC readers will know that we're
convinced that holiness is the solution to every problem
(including statistical decline - and the new audiobook THE
UPRISING, is further evidence in favour of our support of that
position [get it free at isalvos.com]). Paul, Wesley, and
Brengle were right. They are right. Let's preach and
experience that holiness and see if it doesn't accelerate our
advance.
Solution f. Leaders lead. We
know that some territories advance because enemy is weak there
and the church as a whole is advancing. We know that some
territories are retreating because the enemy is strong there
and the church as a whole is retreating. We know that
leadership in the latter territories is probably more
difficult than in the former. We are interested in effective
leadership against the trends. That is, where is the Army
advancing where there church is retreating? In those places,
we reckon it is because solutions A-E are in play and that
leadership is a key dynamic. We don't need many more managers
or administrators (we need some, but not more!). But we do
need leaders. And it doesn't matter if they happen to be
married women or African. Further, we believe that good
leaders' effectiveness can transcend context.
Solution g. It is politically
correct to include extraordinary prayer in a list of
solutions. The thing is, though, that the Army has been the
biggest participant in 24/7 prayer to date, with several
territories going non-stop for significant periods, and we
find ourselves where we are statistically. So, 'prayer' is the
spiritually correct inclusion to the list. BUT, it also means
more than a sentence before lunch or an extra meeting each
week. We're already doing heaps more than we have done in the
recent past. Something supernatural and unprecedented is what
we're looking for. It is easy to identify and very hard to do.
General Shaw Clifton has called us to NON-STOP Prayer starting
January 1. Are we
up for it?
The High Council
We expect that any officers
considered for election will have positions on these issues.
If elected, what will they DO
to change our results in
Europe
and most of the western Army?
What will they DO to deal with
these seven suggested solutions?
What will they DO to optimise
the relative success experienced in parts of
India
and Africa
and
Korea?
What will they DO to deal with
that most troubling stat - aside from those we've listed above
- bothering the Army, that of ZERO - zero being the number of
married woman TCs (in history, and you can't count Emma and
Florence Booth, married to Frederick and Bramwell and sitting
in the 'co-' seat and British Commissioner chair
respectively)?
What will they DO to advance
the mission to win the world for Jesus?
If they don't have prayed-up
responses to these issues they are not worthy of your vote (we
don't know how many voters will read this but feel free to
pass it along to your territory's voter(s)).
High Council delegates should
be considering these statistical trends and causes behind
them. And the High Council affords a wonderful opportunity for
the senior active leaders of The Salvation Army to discuss
them. And while
they’re at it, they might invest some time discussing global
strategy.
Global Strategy. Maybe there
is one that we don't know about. We know that Commissioner
DuPlessis was responsible for world evangelisation until his
retirement. But he wasn't replaced. Commissioner Krommenhoek
did serve for awhile as the General's representative for world
evangelisation but now he's a TC and wasn't replaced. Such a
strategy might encompass some of the following:
1.
take seriously
Korea's
aggressive 2020 plan. Open doors, provide finance, deploy
Koreans through target countries;
2.
take seriously the S2S (Saved to Save) School's vision for
house churches through
Scandinavia and
northern Europe
by training up mobile salvos and deploying them strategically;
3.
take seriously
India's
Soldiers of the Cross soldier evangelists model by financing
it but also by replicating it around the world;
4.
take seriously MMCCXX, the plan to see new outposts in 2000
cities in 200 countries in 20 years (that is five years in and
several countries advanced - hallelujah);
5.
take seriously The War College training system that produces
proven warriors by promoting and facilitating strategic
replication around the world (there is a plan);
6.
take seriously the 10/40 Window challenges by mobilising
powerful prayer battalions around the world, studying
relatively successful ministries into those regions,
identifying potential pioneer leaders, and preparing to
finance the invasion (this fits nicely into the General’s
GLOBAL CALL to non-stop prayer);
6.(b)
'finance the invasion' - take seriously the opportunities
latent in the investment portfolios of some FITs (financially
independent territories) and prepare to invest them
strategically and directly into these new invasions;
7.
restructure IHQ such that ISs are actually responsible to
coordinate the salvation war - the winning of the whole
theatre of war under their responsibility (responsibility
implies accountability);
8.
take seriously one of the great bottlenecks to raising
candidates to officership - that is, training colleges (and
fix them);
9.
take seriously the fragmentation of The Army around the world
by focussing on our shared covenants - JS / SS / officer - and
actually embracing them - as the sinews of the strategy;
10.
global non-stop strategic prayer to drive the attack;
11.
preach holiness as taught by Paul, Wesley, and Brengle as the
content of the campaign;
12.
set goals. Goals
are not universally popular. But the General has taught that
healthy things grow. And we know that God has commissioned us
to win the world for Jesus. Goals help us from settling with
the status quo. Let's set some biggies. Here are a few
suggestions:
- 2011 in 2011 - that is, 2011
cadets by the end of 2011 (close to doubling status quo);
- 202 by 2020 - that is, every
country invaded within the decade. That means about 8/year.
That's not unrealistic.
- celebrate Rader's Million
Marching (by the millennium) achievement and recognise our
failure at Larsson's 2 Million by 2010 (to include
JS/SS/adherents), repent of it, and then hit the target. We're
at about 1.7 mil right now (300,000 left? Let's do it!).
- Bring back the big
goal-setters like Rader and Noland (and others) to help on
vision and strategy.
These are suggestions, only.
We understand that the High Council is a highly
spiritual exercise.
We believe that God has already decided who will
succeed General Clifton.
And we’re convinced that consideration and discussion
of these issues leading to planning of global strategy that
takes into consideration the trends we’ve alluded to, and
others, will help each delegate discern God’s will and
optimally advance the salvation war.
God bless The General.
God bless The Salvation Army.
Endnotes
1
This comment is not ‘aimed’ at any leaders of declining
territories specifically.
It observes that these leaders have most experience in
declining regions, contexts in which the Body of Christ is
facing many challenges.
It is quite likely that weaker leaders in those
situations would preside over steeper declines.
The point is that our choices have been people (with an
exception clarified later in the article) with experience in a
culture of decline.
2
We recognize that Rader doesn’t get all the credit for
the advance but he wasn’t an accidental leader, just
coincidentally in the general’s chair during that success.
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