Salvo
Stats Snapshots
Here are the key statistics for selected territories in 1995
and 2010 and then again in 2013.
We've tracked the trend in the first 15 years and then
in the last 3 years.
High Council delegates will be interested in these numbers
because they reflect on the leaders.
It isn't as simple as suggesting that those leading
territories with steady, across-the-board growth should be
considered and those without that shouldn't.
But the longer term trends help indicate if recent /
current leaders have reversed decline or stemmed the flow of
decline, have increased the rate of growth, etc.
(and don't worry, we will cover several
more territories below)
Corps
1995 / 2010 / 2013
Canada and Bermuda C+B 372 / 311 (about 17%
decline) 312 – adding 1 in last 3 years
Australia Eastern AE 208 / 174 (about 12%
decline); 162 – dropping 12 in 3 years – about 7%
Denmark DEN 38 / 32 (around 17% decline);
29 – about 10% loss in last 3 years
France F 43 / 29 (about a third decline);
France and Belgium FB 37 – added a country
New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga NZ 104 / 94
(nearly 1/10 decline); 93 – lost another 1
Sweden SW 197 / 147 (1/4 decline); 114 –
24% in last 3 years
Switzerland SWIT 97 / 65 (about 1/3
decline); 62 – lost 3 in last 3
Norway NOR 124 / 111 (about 1/10 decline);
110 – lost 1
UK 823/ 704 (maybe 14% decline); 697 – lost
1%
All nine territories shrank at least 1/10 in number of corps
(and a few fudged 2010 stats by adding community service
units) in the first 15 years.
AE dropped by 12 and SW by 33 – shocking.
There are solutions to these problems (stay tuned
through July and into the high council for more).
----
Holy. now.
----
Active Officers
1995 / 2010 / 2013
C+B 1395 / 877 (more 1/3 decline or so - in
hard numbers, Canada lost more officers than NZ AND Sweden
currently have) 817 – loss of 7% in last 3 years
AE 692 / 520 (about 1/4 decline); 531 – a
gain of 2% in last 3 years
DEN 47 / 37 (nearly 1/4 decline); 31 – loss
of 16% in last 3
F 126 / 72 (about 40% decline); FB 67 –
added a country and still lost 7%
NZ 422 / 316 (1/4 decline); 308 – lost 2/3%
in last 3 years
SW 236 / 174 (more than 1/4 decline); 139 –
lost 20% in last 3 years!
SWIT 285 / 187 (more than 1/3 decline); 164
– lost 12% in last 3 years
NOR 269 / 182 (about 1/3 decline); 162 –
lost 11% in last 3 years
UK 1776 / 1247 (about 1/3 decline); 1149 –
lost 8/9% in last 3 years
The best of the nine territories only lost a QUARTER of the
officer corps (in the first 15 years). The worst lost hundreds
of officers (only 15 years).
The losses continued in the last 3 years (AE
exception), mostly more than 1/10 – the exceptions are UK and
Canada, which have lost 627 and 578 in last 18 years (98 and
60 in the last 3).
It is time for an intentional approach to restore
covenant for former officers and to determine why people are
leaving and aim to sort out solutions to some of those
reasons…
----
Cadets
1995 / 2010 / 2013
(these are low totals that fluctuate with
each session and so that percentages are less meaningful)
C+B 86 / 35 / 32 – trending down
AE 54 / 31 / 43 – bounce back after
downward trend
DEN 0/0 / 8 – Denmark seems to be on the
move – 8 cadets - hallelujah
F 26 / 0 / FB 0 - tragic
* July 7, 2013
- 8 cadets of the Proclaimers of the Resurrection Session were
commissioned.
Hallelujah:
www.salvationarmy.org/ihq/news/inr110713
NZ 35 / 28 / 29 – stopping the downward
trend?
SW 4 / 12 / 10 looking better than the ’95
snapshot
SWIT 16 / 2 / 5 – small recovery
NOR 15 / 8 / 15 – fluctuation
UK 94 / 79 / 59 – increasing pace of
decreasing numbers
Other than a heartening reversal in Sweden, there are all
significant drops in cadets over the first 15 years.
There is no reason we can’t succeed on this front (we
can hear the arguments coming but we’ll show you below a
counter-argument).
AE, DEN, SWIT, NOR all have reason for hope and the
start of a positive turn.
----
Senior Soldiers
1995 / 2010 / 2013
C+B 24643 / 18866 (about a 1/4 drop); 18090
– a 4% decrease in last 3 years
AE 14062 / 8698 (nearly 40%); 8519; 2%
decline in last 3 years
DEN 1573 / 960 (1/3 decline); 905 – 6%
decline in last 3 years
F 1061 / 919 (more than 1/10 decline); FB
1177 – increase with addition of Belgium
NZ 6691 / 5565 (18% or so decline); 5358 –
4% decline in last 3 years
SW 8556 / 5321 (about 37% decline); 4098 –
23% decline in last 3 years
SWIT 4726 / 3030 (more than 40% decline);
2670 – 12% decline in last 3 years
NOR 8177 / 5515 (about 1/3 decline); 4766 –
14% decline in last 3 years
UK 48121 / 31575 (more than 1/3 decline);
28771 – 9% drop in last 3 years
ENORMOUS decline through these territories, chopping tens of
thousands of soldiers, covenanted for life, from the Army.
This is a tragedy.
SWE leads in percentage decline while UK lost
thousands. It
will be great to restore the covenant of soldiers around the
world. You might
know a few former soldiers that you can prayerfully approach…
----
Junior Soldiers
1995 / 2010 / 2013
C+B 6613 / 3067 (about 55%); 2533 – 17%
drop in last 3 years
AE 2883 / 490 (about 80% decline); 780 –
57% INCREASE in last 3 years
DEN 115 / 12 (about 90% decline); 10 – down
two Junior Soldiers in territory
F 84 / 80 (5% decline); FB 160 – doubled
with addition of Belgium
NZ 1255 / 718 (about 40% decline); 828 –
14% increase in last 3 years
SW 479 / 125 (more than 3/4 decline); 159 –
27% increase in last 3 years
SWIT 482 / 379 (more than 20% decline); 336
– 11% decline in last 3 years
NOR 886 / 43 (95% decline); 13 – 70%
decline in last 3 years
UK 9325 / 5022 (about 45% decline); 3946 –
21% decline in last 3 years
NZ, AE, SW show that we can increase despite the cultural
malaise. Maybe we
can learn from their experience.
Wouldn’t it be great to be able to share resources and
strategies globally?
----
So, selected European and Commonwealth countries are sliding
steadily. We will
show, below, in coming days that some of the formerly mighty
European Territories are now mere shadows of their former
selves and might more appropriately be called ‘eurotories’.
How does this information inform the High Council
deliberations?
One way – the solutions to our problems are not to be found in
the strategies and methods that got us where we are in those
regions. That
doesn’t exclude individuals serving in those territories from
consideration for leadership but it does suggest that mere
experience sitting in certain seats in places like these
proves nothing in terms of readiness for larger leadership
responsibilities.
High Council Preparations
The Stats Don’t Lie
It’s been bad news up to this point.
Let’s turn the page…
----
So, let’s see what happens when we add 1960
numbers to the nine territories from yesterday AND six more
sets of numbers: the old East Africa Territory (now Kenya
East, Kenya West, Tanzania, and Uganda Territories), Korea,
Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), USA Western, USA Eastern, and
combined USA (all four US Territories).
(Warning to Swedish and most European Territories – the past
was glorious (1960) may your tears be intercessory) – new term
for husks of former glorious European territories still
carrying the trappings (e.g. rank inflation, territorial
status…) of their former glory – ‘eurotory’.
This might offend some Europeans - none intended - but
the inflated ranks and territorial statuses probably offend
some Asians and Africans who are still in commands and
regions... Here
goes:
----
Corps
1960 /1995 /2010 /2013
Global 17126 / 14907 / 15478 / 15765 – 2%
increase in last 3 years but 8% decline in last 53
This is counter received wisdom that we are bigger than ever.
That is, as measured by number of corps, we are NOT
larger than ever.
The good news is that we can be bigger than ever during the
coming term of the next general if we pick the right person.
Canada and Bermuda C+B 384 / 372 / 311
(about 17% decline) 312 – adding 1 in last 3 years – closed 72
corps in last 53 years
So for the first 35 years (1960-95) C+B lost 12 corps.
In the next 15 C+B lost 61.
C+B has produced 2 generals in the last 18 years.
Australia Eastern AE 202
/ 208 /
174 (about 12% decline); 162 – dropping 12 in 3 years – about
7% - closed 40 corps in last 53 years
AE actually grew between '60 and '95 before dropping 34 corps
in 15 years and then another 12 the last.
AE hosted as TC 2 of the last 4 generals.
Denmark DEN 56 / 38 / 32 (around 17% decline); 29 – about 10%
loss in last 3 years – closed 27 corps in last 53 years
DEN
is trending steadily down.
The great news for this eurotory is that it has a bunch
of cadets, which augurs well for the coming years.
France F 53 / 43 / 29 (about a third
decline); France and Belgium FB 37 – added a country
F, now FB, is a medium-sized division in some territories,
making it a eurotory.
If it joined a few other countries (see Easter Europe
Territory) it could save some costs of operation, exploit the
commercial union liberties and optimise regional strengths in
the salvation war.
F hosted as TC 1 of the last 4 generals.
New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga NZ
97 / 104 / 94 (nearly 1/10 decline); 93 – lost another
1
We've joked in the past that NZ produced a lot of CSs in this
new millennium. CSs grow into TCs...
NZ hosted as TC 2 of the last 4 generals.
Sweden SW 275 / 197 / 147 (1/4 decline);
114 – staggering 24% decline in last 3 years – closed 161
corps in last 53 years – about 3 / year
This is an absolute tragedy.
The once-mighty SW territory was a generous and
sacrificial missionary-sending territory, once of the
strongest in the Army.
SW hosted as TC 1 of the last 3 generals.
The crazy thing is, the only SW salvos I know and know
of seem pretty keen and committed!
Switzerland SWIT 120 / 97 / 65 (about 1/3 decline); 62 – lost
3 in last 3 – closed 58 corps in last 53 years, more than
1/year
SWIT
has a glorious history punctuated by persecution and
sacrifice. Even
today, they shake the western salvo world with their
‘Eurovision’ spunk.
God help us.
Norway NOR 141 / 124 / 111 (about 1/10 decline); 110 – lost 1
– closed 41 corps in last 53 years
NOR,
to be optimistic, has stemmed the tide.
We'll see (not before the High Council).
God grant it.
UK 1018 / 823/
704 (maybe 14% decline); 697 – lost 1% in last 3 years –
closed 321 corps in last 53 years – more than 6/year.
UK hosted as TC 3 of the last 4 generals (and the 4th served
there in a reserve appointment).
Oh, and it produced 3 of the last 4, as well.
We admitted that experience in a declining territory
doesn't exclude someone from consideration for international
leadership. But
neither does service in the oldest territory qualify one.
High Council delegates must look PAST the Service Bio.
----
WAIT - here is some more good news! (with
scattered bad news)
EA/K/U/Tan 171 / 413 / ke340/kw331/u75/t65(901) (more than
doubled in 15 years!) / ke347/kw357/t78/u75(857) – drop of 5%
in 3 years! While
the doubling in 15 is huge, the decline in 3 is just as big –
this is scary…
So, the old East Africa Territory is now four territories and
it more than doubled between 1995 and 2010.
But it dropped 44 corps in only 3 years!
Between then the 4 territories dropped 13+ corps each
year! And this is
the heart of the strength of the Army.
Oh, and EA/etc. has produced no generals (though 1 led
it).
K 68 / 203 / 247 (20% increase in 15 years!) / 254 – 3%
increase in 3 years
God
bless the Koreans.
Oh, and K has produced no generals, though it hosted 1
of the last 5 for a very long time.
Hallelujah.
R/Z 194 / 324 / 404 (1/4 increase in 15 years!) / 431 – 7%
increase in 3 years
Zimbabwe
continues to expand.
Hallelujah.
It produced 0 generals though it hosted 1 for a long
time. Praise the
Lord.
USE 341 / 331 / 382 (16% increase in 15 years) / 369 – 3%
decrease in 3 years
So,
significant expansion between '95 and '10 has dampened a bit
recently (USE has had 3 TCs in that period - coincidental?).
USE has produced 1 general.
USW 170 / 258 /
249 / 257 3%
increase in last 3 years, almost back to 1995 level
The big jump in '95 was during a massive campaign (note the
similar high numbers below for USW that year) capped by the
election of the TC as general.
Though USW has produced 0 generals, it did host the one
as TC. Current growth mode is close to the '95 high.
USN 1109 / 1189 / 1252 (<1 1221="" 15=""
2="" 3="" decrease="" in="" increase="" last="" o:p=""
years="">
USN has a modest history in this section over the past 53
years. It has
produced 1 general and hosted as TC 3 of the past 6 (and a 4th
and 5th served in reserve appointments).
----
Active Officers
1960 /1995 /2010 /2013
Global 19692 / 17271 / 16938 /
17117
Again, contrary to received wisdom, in terms of number of
active officers, we are NOT larger than we have ever been.
We're smaller than 1995 and significantly smaller than
1960. God have
mercy.
C+B 1323 / 1395 / 877 (more 1/3 decline or
so - in hard numbers, Canada lost more officers than NZ AND
Sweden currently have) 817 – loss of 7% in last 3 years – more
than 500 active officers down in last 53 years
Significant losses continue.
AE 752 / 692 / 520 (about 1/4 decline); 531 – a gain of 2% in
last 3 years – but general trend is down over 18 and 53 years
(total net loss of actives, 221)
Praise
God for the recent upturn.
D 195 / 47 / 37 (nearly 1/4 decline); 31 –
loss of 16% in last 3 – lost 158 net in last 53 years, 5x
current active strength
Tragic.
F 297 / 126 / 72 (about 40% decline); FB 67
– added a country and still lost 7% - lost 230 actives
compared with F alone in last 53 years
Disastrous.
NZ 400 / 422 / 316 (1/4 decline); 308 –
lost 2/3% in last 3 years – down 98 actives in 53 years
Steady downward trend.
SW 904 / 236 / 174 (more than 1/4 decline); 139 – lost 20% in
last 3 years! – down 730 actives in last 53 years
Catastrophic.
SWIT 439 / 285 / 187 (more than 1/3
decline); 164 – lost 12% in last 3 years – down 275 in last 53
years
Shocking.
NOR 650 / 269 / 182 (about 1/3 decline); 162 – lost 11% in
last 3 years – down 488 actives in last 53 years
Disappointing.
UK 2130 / 1776 /
1247 (about 1/3 decline); 1149 – lost 8/9% in last 3 years –
down 981 actives in last 53 years
Appalling.
----
EA/K/U/Tan 370 / 699 / ke422/kw446/u56/t126
(1050) (50% increase in 15 years!) / ke480/kw498/t133/u78/
(1189) – 13% increase in 3 years – increase of 818 actives in
53 years, which doesn't make up for what UK lost but covers a
lot of it.
K 168 / 465 / 582 (1/4 increase in 15 years!) / 622 – 7%
increase in last 3 – increase of 414 in 53 years
Hallelujah.
R/Z 358 / 336 / 457 (more than 1/3 increase in 15 years!) /
504 – 10% increase in last 3 – 146 increase in actives in 53
years
Praise
God.
USE 1327 / 1050 / 1071 (marginal increase in last 15 but
decrease in 50) / 1031 – 4% decline in last 3 years – decrease
of 296 actives in 53 years.
USW 595 / 736 /
636 / 652 - 3%
increase in last few years; 33% decline in last 18, modest
growth over 53.
The current increases are key to blowing up the conventional
'knowledge' about officership in the 'west'.
USN 3881 / 3571 / 3443 (marginal decrease)
/ 3375 – 2% decrease in last 3 years – decrease of 506 actives
in 53 years
Before we let USN off the hook, let's note
that those long term losses are more than half of the UK's
notorious decline.
Praise the Lord for Korean, Zimbabwe, and the Kenya
territories. They
have carried a lot of the expansion of The Salvation Army
(credit to India and Pakistan, not included in these stats, as
well).
We should reiterate, so that no one gets offended, that we’re
not suggesting that only those with the best stats should be
considered during the imminent High Council.
But we’re asserting that actual results on the ground –
victories and defeats, conversions and casualties, enrollments
and AWOLs, commissionings and defections, advances and
retreats – these things are all more important than where you
lived and what your office door sign said.
Experience can be great but isn’t necessarily.
So, we are adding 1960 numbers to the nine
territories from AND six more sets of numbers: the old East
Africa Territory (now Kenya East, Kenya West, Tanzania, and
Uganda Territories), Korea, Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), USA
Western, USA Eastern, and combined USA (all four US
Territories).
This isn’t so much intended to identify who
High Council delegates should consider – though it should
certainly help in the process of determining that – as to help
convince them of the reality of our current situation and the
significant strategic advances that a High Council makes
possible.
We’re looking at cadets, senior soldiers,
and junior soldiers:
----
Cadets
1960 /1995 /2010 /2013
(? Means that the Year Book didn’t provide the number)
Global 997 / 1320 / 1126 / 1188
Interesting that we are way above 1960 levels but lower than
1995. There is no reason that we couldn't have 2000 in the
2014 session. Oh,
if we pick the right leader...
(Now, % for cadets aren’t that meaningful –
so keep that in mind in this section)
C+B ? / 86 / 35 / 32 – lost 59% in the
first 15 years and then 9% in last 3 years
Steady decline.
This is a territory that had three training colleges in the
mid 1990s (Toronto, Montreal, St. John's) and now has one.
AE ? / 54 / 31 / 43 – lost 43% in the first
15 years and then burst back up 71% in last 3
Praise God for the upturn.
I guess maybe it isn't impossible to recruit officers
in the 'west' today!
Go, Commissioner Condon!
D ? / 0/0 / 8 – Denmark seems to be on the move – 8 cadets -
hallelujah
Oh,
wait - maybe it isn't even impossible in a eurotory!
Hallelujah.
F ? / 26 / 0 / FB 0 - tragic
God
help us.
* July 7, 2013
- 8 cadets of the Proclaimers of the Resurrection Session were
commissioned.
Hallelujah:
www.salvationarmy.org/ihq/news/inr110713
NZ ? / 35 / 28 / 29 – 10% reduction in the
first 15 years and then increase of 1 in last 3
Let's be optimistic and call it a stop to the decline.
Hallelujah.
SW ? / 4 / 12 / 10 longterm gain
Keep building SW, keep building.
SWIT ? / 16 / 2 / 5 – 86% drop in first 15
years then 150% increase in last 3
Terrible. God
have mercy.
NOR ? / 15 / 8 / 15 – drop then return to
1995 level
We can't sort this out from the available
numbers but we give God glory that the current number equals
1995.
UK ? / 94 / 79 / 59 – 16% drop in first 15 years then 30% drop
in last 3 years
The rate of decline is increasing.
What does that say?
Among other things, it seems that UKI Territory needs
something much more than an intervention or even an
international congress (and sooner than the 2015 Boundless
congress!).
----
EA/K/U/Tan ? / 73 / k108/u24 (132) 81% increase in last 15
years / ke25/kw21/t9/u24 (79) -
decrease of 67% in 3 years
Again (as yesterday) - scary recent numbers
for the heart of the strength of the Army.
K ? / 63 / 59 (under 10% decrease in last 15 years) / 33
What
is going on in Korea?
Come on, Koreans!
God help you!
R/Z ? / 56 / 40 (more than 1⁄4 decrease in last 15) / 44
Look,
as we pointed out in yesterday's post, the %s aren't that
helpful on cadets because the annual influx of new numbers
make the trends fluctuate. However, why are there so few
cadets in the last 3 years compared to 1995?
USE ? / 101 / 72 (1/3 decrease in last 15
years) / 76
Massive decline that has balanced out in
the last 3 years.
USW 46 / 104 / 71
/ 105 – this is
the highest of any of the recorded stats of any territory in
this analysis
This might be too easy to note, but we'll do it, in case you
aren't reading too closely.
Rader was TC (just becoming general) when the 1995
total of 104 was posted.
And Knaggs is TC in 2013 when the total of 105 is
posted. Praise
the Lord.
USN 201 / 387 / 262 (nearly 1/3 decrease in
last 15 years) / 335 – 28% increase in last 3 years
See above.
----
Senior Soldiers
1960 /1995 /2010 /2013
Global - ? / 797910 / 1122326 (40% increase in 15 years!) /
1148426
For
some reason in 1960 we didn't record some stats that we do
today (though we still don't report the first time seekers for
salvation - the most important stat for a Salvation Army – HC
delegates take note).
We grow and grow and grow.
Hallelujah.
C+B ? / 24643 / 18866 (about a 1/4 drop); 18090 – a 4%
decrease in last 3 years
Steady decline.
AE ? / 14062 / 8698 (nearly 40%); 8519; 2% decline in last 3
years
Steady decline.
D ? / 1573 / 960 (1/3 decline); 905 – 6% decline in last 3
years
Steady decline.
F ? / 1061 / 919 (more than 1/10 decline); FB 1177 – increase
with addition of Belgium
NZ ? / 6691 / 5565 (18% or so decline); 5358 – 4% decline in
last 3 years
Steady decline.
SW ? / 8556 / 5321 (about 37% decline); 4098 – 23% decline in
last 3 years
Massive decline.
SWIT ? / 4726 / 3030 (more than 40%
decline); 2670 – 12% decline in last 3 years
Huge decrease.
NOR ? / 8177 / 5515 (about 1/3 decline); 4766 – 14% decline in
last 3 years
Steady decline.
UK ? / 48121 / 31575 (more than 1/3
decline); 28771 – 9% drop in last 3 years
Steady decline.
----
Good news...
EA/K/U/Tan
? / 138956 / ke69554/kw113030/u5646/t5372 (193602) (39%
increase in last 15 years!) / ke72055/kw113409/t6408/u10634
(202506) – 5% increase in 3 years
Hallelujah. Do
you know, we hear a lot about programmes and initiatives and
projects and slogans and resources and courses that we need to
advance the salvation war.
And here's the thing.
I'm pretty connected.
I follow 10s of thousands of people on twitter.
I am maxed on facebook.
I keep abreast of salvospheric happenings.
And I haven't heard of ONE programme or ONE initiative
or ONE project or ONE slogan or ONE resource or ONE course
from Kenya East or Kenya West or Tanzania or Uganda or Korea
or Zimbabwe or any of the SIX India territory or Pakistan.
Not ONE.
And yet these are the territories that consistently expand and
advance. So, do
we need more resources and fancy packages and slogans and
titles and so on, all developed from territories LACKING
consistent expansion and advance?
Do we need more leaders from territories LACKING
consistent expansion and advance?
Or could we use a little African and Asian success?
K ? / 34799 / 41723 (about 20% increase in last 15 years) /
43877 – 5% increase in last 3 years
Hallelujah.
R/Z ? / 63267 / 122513 (nearly DOUBLED!) / 125908 – 3%
increase in last 3 years
Hallelujah.
USE ? / 18377 / 20975 (about 15% increase)
/ 21803 – 4% decrease in last 3 years
After good expansion USE dropped off in the
last 3 years.
USW 14616 / 16787
/ 16906 1% increase in last 3 years (reversing a downward
trend from 18000 in year 2000).
Hallelujah.
USN ? / 81606/ 82010 (marginal increase) /
83979 – 2% increase in last 3 years
Praise the Lord.
----
Junior Soldiers
1960 /1995 /2010 /2013
Global - ? / 348885 / 378009
/ 384694 – steady trend upwards
C+B ? / 6613 / 3067 (about 55%); 2533 – 17%
drop in last 3 years – massive drop off from 18 years ago
Dreadful.
AE ? / 2883 / 490 (about 80% decline); 780
– 57% INCREASE in last 3 years – though still more than 2000
shy of 1995
Ridiculous decline reversed with a sweet increase.
Hallelujah.
Who's the territorial children's secretary there?
Captain Steve Smith
D ? / 115 / 12 (about 90% decline); 10 –
down two Junior Soldiers in territory – decimated in last 18
years
I know an outpost there that could double
the territorial outpost next week if so inclined... (I’ve
emailed to prompt)
F ? / 84 / 80 (5% decline); FB 160 –
doubled with addition of Belgium
NZ ? / 1255 / 718 (about 40% decline); 828
– 14% increase in last 3 years – but still down 427 from 1995
Who's the territorial children's secretary?
Major Bronwyn Malcolm
SW ? / 479 / 125 (more than 3/4 decline);
159 – 27% increase in last 3 years – and down 320 in last 18
years
Who's the territorial children's secretary?
Year Book has ‘Youth’ ‘tba’.
You go TBA!
SWIT ? / 482 / 379 (more than 20% decline);
336 – 11% decline in last 3 years – down 146 in last 18 years
Steady decline.
NOR ? / 886 / 43 (95% decline); 13 – 70% decline in last 3
years – down 873 in last 18 years
Steady decline.
UK ? / 9325 / 5022 (about 45% decline);
3946 – 21% decline in last 3 years – down 5379 in last 18
years
Enormous decline.
USW ? 8549 / 5326 / 5420
Who's the territorial children's secretary?
Year Book has Captain Roy Wild as TYS.
USN ? / 35825 / 24902 (about 30% decrease!)
/ 24196 (2013)
We’ll reiterate that we’re not suggesting that the TC with the
biggest statistics is necessarily best qualified to be
general.
Strategies that lead to decline or that maintain decline must
be shed by those whose only experience is decline if they are
to be qualified for consideration at the High Council.
But how can we tell that they can shed those strategies
and habits and mindsets?
We have outlined the trends in the salvation war and the
status of The Salvation Army on representative fronts in
theatres of war around the world – in Africa, Asia, Oceania,
Europe, and North America.
Globally, the numbers are reasonably
reassuring, that despite the threats of false religionism,
secularism, hedonism, commercialism (among other ‘isms’) the
Army is holding its own and even taking some ground with
modest advances numerically in the short and medium term.
Under the surface of these acceptable
trends and totals, however, the crude overview is that, in the
territories we considered, Africa and Asia are prospering
(though not without their own concerns), Oceania and North
America are struggling (though not without happy exceptions),
and Europe is in a calamitous situation.
Why talk about this now?
----
We’re hoping that we can stir up discussion on the trends and
status of the Army so that High Council delegates will
consider these issues.
In the normal pre-High Council gathering AND during the
High Council itself, there is time and provision to discuss
important issues.
And these are important issues.
They should be discussed at the highest levels in the
context of prayed-up covering (which the High Council will
enjoy from around the world).
----
Why does it matter?
Yes, we’re merely 1.533120 million soldiers in a world of 7.1
billion people.
But we believe Catherine Booth’s foundational prophecy for The
Salvation Army:
“The decree has gone forth that the kingdoms of this world
shall become the kingdoms of our Lord and of His Christ and
that He shall reign whose right it is from the River to the
ends of the earth.
We shall win.
It is only a question of time.
I believe that this Movement shall inaugurate the final
conquest of our Lord Jesus Christ.”
If she is right, the Army – the Fist of the Body of Christ –
is meant to be on the vanguard of the attack.
It is not self-aggrandizement.
It is living up to our calling.
It isn’t to insinuate that we get every person saved
while the rest of the people of God stand by and watch – not
at all. We all
have different roles.
We’re meant to fulfill ours.
To do that, we cannot gloss over at the High Council the
desperate situation of the salvation war in the Europe theatre
or the dicey situation in North America and Oceania, nor can
we rely on the continued advances in Africa and Asia.
We can’t ignore the challenges in South America and
India. We can’t
count on sustained favour on several unstable fronts.
And so on.
----
A Dozen ‘MUSTs’
We must be intentional and strategic with
our operations.
We must be honest and biblical in dealing
with sin, weakness, and ‘governing’.
We must be forthight and ruthless in
sharpening our mission.
We must be holy and zealous in our
evangelising.
We must be patient and persistent in our
discipling.
We must be creative and innovative in our
tactics.
We must be generous and merciful in our
disciplining.
We must be extravagant and extraordinary in
our stewardship.
We must be sacrificial and passionate in
our praying.
We must be free and reverent in our
worshipping.
We must be resolute and stubborn in our
covenanting.
We must be loving and forgiving in our
reconciling.
Half A Dozen ‘SHOULDs’
We should pray seriously about valuing;
transparency over confidentiality
(confidentiality sometimes descends into cover-up)
prophetic over relevance (relevance
sometimes descends into compromise)
holiness over righteousness (righteousness
sometimes descends into reputation burnishing)
discipline over legalism (legalism
sometimes gets confused for godly discipline)
mission over Army (Army sometimes descends
into clubbing)
war-fighting over programming (programme
sometimes descends into busy-ness and confrontation avoidance)
High Council delegates must
-
get past the excuse of ‘not
knowing’ potential leaders and do some homework (we have
email, google, facebook, phones, the whole salvosphere…);
-
get deeper than the Year Book and
entries in The Officer and not settle for who is best known
(two of the last four generals chosen were the most famous
salvos in the world for composing a bunch of musicals and the
most recent travelled the world as a spiritual life special);
-
get over age issues.
If the best candidate is 73 years old, then pick
her/him. We are
allowed to change the specs to permit that.
If s/he is 40, then don’t exclude that pick because of
current general term limits (that person can always be elected
again at a later high council);
-
get over personality.
We read that Generals Carpenter and Coutts were far
from the most charismatic guys in the room
But they carried the day by their character and
anointing.
----
More comments on those numbers:
a. Thank God for the significant advances
in Korea and Africa and Pakistan and parts of Asia, and for
incremental advance in USA and other areas. Without it we’d be
slipping off the map.
b. Around 1995, one of the dates in the
comparison (along with 1960, 2010, and 2013), Phil Wall
started preaching about the decline of the UKI territory and
what might happen if it continued. Well, it seems like not
enough people were listening, because UKI has been in free
fall over the 18- year period.
c. During this latter 18-year period we
elected no African generals, nor did we appoint any Africans
to Western territorial commands. However, we did elect three
British Generals (all outstanding Salvationists). At some
point we need to ask what value experience in managing decline
has for leadership (in that NZF territory has produced a batch
of CSs; UKI continues to spurt out TCs/comms; C+B has made a
fairly recent international play in CSs/TCs - all despite a
record of decline over the period).
d. Who is going to be accountable for this?
Are the TYSs and children’s secretaries having to wear the
Junior Soldier stats around their necks every day at THQ? Are
the TCs wearing sackcloth and ashes over the bleeding of
soldiers? Are the DCs fasting and praying about how to reverse
the decline in corps? Are the Candidates Secretaries resourced
and supported in their recruiting? Someone has to step up and
take responsibility AND turn us around. (Here's an idea! If we
can't find any white-skinned people to do it, maybe we can
look in Pakistan and Korea and Africa and India where the Army
is aggressively advancing and appoint some of them as TCs and
DCs and TYSs and Candidates Secretaries and Chief Secretaries
instead of the somewhat steady stream of decline managers).
e. The Army is better than this. It
deserves better than this. God certainly deserves better than
this. If you aren't uncomfortable reading this, you should be,
so ask the Lord to make you uncomfortable (and to show you
what you should do to help).
----
The statistics suggest some of the
challenges of The Salvation Army in coming decades. Here are
some suggested solutions:
Solution a. HQ is not essentially a support
or a facilitator or a resource. It is for leadership. (yes, it
can support/facilitate/resource, but that is not its essential
function). It should lead.
Solution b. accountability. In the
non-African centres of advance (e.g. Korea and USA) there is
accountability. Leaders are required to 'do' certain things
and to 'report' on certain things.
Solution c. identity. We should see The Salvation Army as a
revolutionary movement of covenanted warriors exercising holy
passion to win the world for
Jesus. We are not a collection of independent corps or
divisions or territories. We are not a church or churches (see
Major Harold Hill's FOUR ANCHORS FROM THE STERN in JAC64). We
are ‘militant episcopalian’ (CO doesn't run an independent
corps but is part of a division led by a DC - etc.).
Solution d. universal embrace of covenant.
There are 1.533120 million senior soldiers and junior soldiers
around the world. If we all embrace our SS and JS covenants
then we not only reverse the fragmentation and decline, but we
unite to fight in an unstoppable revolutionary force that will
smash the enemy on its head.
Solution e. holiness. I know that this sounds facile. But JAC
readers will know that we're convinced that holiness is the
solution to every problem (including statistical decline –
we’ve got three books on it – THE UPRISING, HOLINESS
INCORPORATED, and BOSTON COMMON).
Paul, Wesley, and Brengle were right. They are right.
Let's preach and experience that holiness and see if it
doesn't accelerate our advance.
Solution f. Leaders lead. We know that some
territories advance because enemy is weak there and the church
as a whole is advancing. We know that some territories are
retreating because the enemy is strong there and the church as
a whole is retreating. We know that leadership in the latter
territories is probably more difficult than in the former. We
are interested in effective leadership against the trends.
That is, where is the Army advancing where the church is
retreating? In those places, we reckon it is because solutions
A-E are in play and that leadership is a key dynamic. We don't
need many more managers or administrators (we need some, but
not more!). But we do need leaders. And it doesn't matter if
they happen to be married women or African. Further, we
believe that good leaders' effectiveness can transcend
context.
Solution g. It is politically correct to
include extraordinary prayer in a list of solutions. The thing
is, though, that the Army has been the biggest participant in
24/7 prayer to date, with several territories going non-stop
for significant periods, and we find ourselves where we are
statistically. So, 'prayer' is the spiritually correct
inclusion to the list. BUT, it also means more than a sentence
before lunch or an extra meeting each week. We're already
doing heaps more than we have done in the recent past.
Something supernatural and unprecedented is what we're looking
for. It is easy to identify and very hard to do. It’s been
about 2 ½ years since the Global Call to Non-Stop Prayer.
Have you embraced it?
A lot more can be said of these stats. But
for starters, praise the Lord on the increase in soldiers in
the last 18 years. Some of this increase in soldiers can be
sourced to General Paul Rader, who challenged the Army world
for a million marching into the new millennium. It is
interesting that he led USW (which had significant growth
under his leadership), and served more than two decades in
Korea (see their fantastic advance above). So, leaders have
effect. But, to other comments:
1. Praise the Lord for every person saved
in the time period under scrutiny.
2. Glory to God for every soldier fighting
with covenanted zeal.
3. Thank the Lord for every leader faithfully fulfilling God's
purposes.
4. Credit to God for the favour that the
Army enjoys in relation to our warfare.
5. Obviously the non-western countries are
carrying our global advance. India, Pakistan, Korea, Kenya,
and Zimbabwe, among many others, are pushing the Gospel
forward with effectiveness.
6. They can't rest on their laurels. Even
though some of Africa has exploded in the last 18 years under
consideration, some there are slipping in junior soldiers - a
telling statistic if the children are the future come early.
Korea is slipping even more in junior soldiers. God help them
reverse that trend.
7. We have suggested, possibly somewhat
simplistically, that placing a Korean or African leader in
charge of a slipping western territory might be the solution
to problems. The rare example we have of this is Commissioner
Peter Heidong Chang in USW, where there was unusual,
accelerated advance. That guarantees nothing with other
leaders. But proven ineffectiveness in leadership in a certain
theatre of war can strongly suggest more of the same
elsewhere, and so it is not unreasonable to imagine that
proven effectiveness in leadership in a certain threate of war
can strongly suggest more of the same elsewhere (what is it
they say about the geographic cure?).
8. We reiterate, though, balancing #7, that it isn’t
necessarily the leader with the best stats who should lead the
global Army. But
the leader chosen to lead the global Army, regardless of
country of origin or appointment, should apply strategies that
work. I know that
sounds simplistic.
But if we pick a European general, we expect that the
general will shed her/his European approaches and strategies
to the extent that they haven’t worked, and to apply African
or Asian or USW strategies that are working…
9. Those big numbers are just a collection of a lot of small
numbers. A lot of
us reading this might figure – ‘this has nothing to do with
me. I’m a soldier
at a small corps in _____ville.’
Well, so am I.
And so are most armybarmy readers and others in the
salvosphere. And
if each of us is faithful in our warfighting, we’ll see a
conversion here and there, and a disciple made here and there,
and a victory won here, and an advance made there, and we add
up yours and theirs and mine we’ll find more first-time
seekers of salvation (SA stat for conversions), more soldiers
made, more candidates and cadets, more outposts and corps
started, more countries invaded.
Let’s add up the small numbers!
10. Prayer is a big immeasurable in this whole discussion.
Yes, we can tally up hours and shifts and war rooms and
non-stop prayer initiatives.
But we can’t measure the amount of prayer OR the impact
of that praying.
If we all devote ourselves to prayer, who knows what God will
do? But, let’s
find out!
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