JAC Online

Salvo Stats Snapshots

 

Here are the key statistics for selected territories in 1995 and 2010 and then again in 2013.  We've tracked the trend in the first 15 years and then in the last 3 years. 

 

High Council delegates will be interested in these numbers because they reflect on the leaders.  It isn't as simple as suggesting that those leading territories with steady, across-the-board growth should be considered and those without that shouldn't.  But the longer term trends help indicate if recent / current leaders have reversed decline or stemmed the flow of decline, have increased the rate of growth, etc.

 

(and don't worry, we will cover several more territories below)

  

Corps

1995 / 2010 / 2013

 

Canada and Bermuda C+B 372 / 311 (about 17% decline) 312 – adding 1 in last 3 years

 

Australia Eastern AE 208 / 174 (about 12% decline); 162 – dropping 12 in 3 years – about 7%

 

Denmark DEN 38 / 32 (around 17% decline); 29 – about 10% loss in last 3 years

 

France F 43 / 29 (about a third decline); France and Belgium FB 37 – added a country

 

New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga NZ 104 / 94 (nearly 1/10 decline); 93 – lost another 1

 

Sweden SW 197 / 147 (1/4 decline); 114 – 24% in last 3 years

 

Switzerland SWIT 97 / 65 (about 1/3 decline); 62 – lost 3 in last 3

 

Norway NOR 124 / 111 (about 1/10 decline); 110 – lost 1

 

UK 823/ 704 (maybe 14% decline); 697 – lost 1%

 

All nine territories shrank at least 1/10 in number of corps (and a few fudged 2010 stats by adding community service units) in the first 15 years.  AE dropped by 12 and SW by 33 – shocking.  There are solutions to these problems (stay tuned through July and into the high council for more). 

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Holy. now.    

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Active Officers

1995 / 2010 / 2013

 

C+B 1395 / 877 (more 1/3 decline or so - in hard numbers, Canada lost more officers than NZ AND Sweden currently have) 817 – loss of 7% in last 3 years

 

AE 692 / 520 (about 1/4 decline); 531 – a gain of 2% in last 3 years

 

DEN 47 / 37 (nearly 1/4 decline); 31 – loss of 16% in last 3

 

F 126 / 72 (about 40% decline); FB 67 – added a country and still lost 7%

 

NZ 422 / 316 (1/4 decline); 308 – lost 2/3% in last 3 years

 

SW 236 / 174 (more than 1/4 decline); 139 – lost 20% in last 3 years!

 

SWIT 285 / 187 (more than 1/3 decline); 164 – lost 12% in last 3 years

 

NOR 269 / 182 (about 1/3 decline); 162 – lost 11% in last 3 years

 

UK 1776 / 1247 (about 1/3 decline); 1149 – lost 8/9% in last 3 years

 

The best of the nine territories only lost a QUARTER of the officer corps (in the first 15 years). The worst lost hundreds of officers (only 15 years).  The losses continued in the last 3 years (AE exception), mostly more than 1/10 – the exceptions are UK and Canada, which have lost 627 and 578 in last 18 years (98 and 60 in the last 3).  It is time for an intentional approach to restore covenant for former officers and to determine why people are leaving and aim to sort out solutions to some of those reasons…

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Cadets

1995 / 2010 / 2013

 

(these are low totals that fluctuate with each session and so that percentages are less meaningful)

 

C+B 86 / 35 / 32 – trending down

 

AE 54 / 31 / 43 – bounce back after downward trend

 

DEN 0/0 / 8 – Denmark seems to be on the move – 8 cadets - hallelujah

 

F 26 / 0 / FB 0 - tragic

* July 7, 2013 - 8 cadets of the Proclaimers of the Resurrection Session were commissioned.

Hallelujah:  www.salvationarmy.org/ihq/news/inr110713

 

NZ 35 / 28 / 29 – stopping the downward trend?

 

SW 4 / 12 / 10 looking better than the ’95 snapshot

 

SWIT 16 / 2 / 5 – small recovery

 

NOR 15 / 8 / 15 – fluctuation

 

UK 94 / 79 / 59 – increasing pace of decreasing numbers

 

Other than a heartening reversal in Sweden, there are all significant drops in cadets over the first 15 years.  There is no reason we can’t succeed on this front (we can hear the arguments coming but we’ll show you below a counter-argument).  AE, DEN, SWIT, NOR all have reason for hope and the start of a positive turn.

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Senior Soldiers

1995 / 2010 / 2013

 

C+B 24643 / 18866 (about a 1/4 drop); 18090 – a 4% decrease in last 3 years

 

AE 14062 / 8698 (nearly 40%); 8519; 2% decline in last 3 years

 

DEN 1573 / 960 (1/3 decline); 905 – 6% decline in last 3 years

 

F 1061 / 919 (more than 1/10 decline); FB 1177 – increase with addition of Belgium

 

NZ 6691 / 5565 (18% or so decline); 5358 – 4% decline in last 3 years

 

SW 8556 / 5321 (about 37% decline); 4098 – 23% decline in last 3 years

 

SWIT 4726 / 3030 (more than 40% decline); 2670 – 12% decline in last 3 years

 

NOR 8177 / 5515 (about 1/3 decline); 4766 – 14% decline in last 3 years

 

UK 48121 / 31575 (more than 1/3 decline); 28771 – 9% drop in last 3 years

 

ENORMOUS decline through these territories, chopping tens of thousands of soldiers, covenanted for life, from the Army.  This is a tragedy.  SWE leads in percentage decline while UK lost thousands.  It will be great to restore the covenant of soldiers around the world.  You might know a few former soldiers that you can prayerfully approach…

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Junior Soldiers

1995 / 2010 / 2013

 

C+B 6613 / 3067 (about 55%); 2533 – 17% drop in last 3 years

 

AE 2883 / 490 (about 80% decline); 780 – 57% INCREASE in last 3 years

 

DEN 115 / 12 (about 90% decline); 10 – down two Junior Soldiers in territory

 

F 84 / 80 (5% decline); FB 160 – doubled with addition of Belgium

 

NZ 1255 / 718 (about 40% decline); 828 – 14% increase in last 3 years

 

SW 479 / 125 (more than 3/4 decline); 159 – 27% increase in last 3 years

 

SWIT 482 / 379 (more than 20% decline); 336 – 11% decline in last 3 years

 

NOR 886 / 43 (95% decline); 13 – 70% decline in last 3 years

 

UK 9325 / 5022 (about 45% decline); 3946 – 21% decline in last 3 years

 

NZ, AE, SW show that we can increase despite the cultural malaise.  Maybe we can learn from their experience.  Wouldn’t it be great to be able to share resources and strategies globally?

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So, selected European and Commonwealth countries are sliding steadily.  We will show, below, in coming days that some of the formerly mighty European Territories are now mere shadows of their former selves and might more appropriately be called ‘eurotories’. 

 

How does this information inform the High Council deliberations?  One way – the solutions to our problems are not to be found in the strategies and methods that got us where we are in those regions.  That doesn’t exclude individuals serving in those territories from consideration for leadership but it does suggest that mere experience sitting in certain seats in places like these proves nothing in terms of readiness for larger leadership responsibilities.

 

  

High Council Preparations

 

The Stats Don’t Lie

 

It’s been bad news up to this point.  Let’s turn the page…

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So, let’s see what happens when we add 1960 numbers to the nine territories from yesterday AND six more sets of numbers: the old East Africa Territory (now Kenya East, Kenya West, Tanzania, and Uganda Territories), Korea, Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), USA Western, USA Eastern, and combined USA (all four US Territories).

 

(Warning to Swedish and most European Territories – the past was glorious (1960) may your tears be intercessory) – new term for husks of former glorious European territories still carrying the trappings (e.g. rank inflation, territorial status…) of their former glory – ‘eurotory’.  This might offend some Europeans - none intended - but the inflated ranks and territorial statuses probably offend some Asians and Africans who are still in commands and regions...  Here goes:  

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Corps

1960 /1995 /2010 /2013

 

Global 17126 / 14907 / 15478 / 15765 – 2% increase in last 3 years but 8% decline in last 53

This is counter received wisdom that we are bigger than ever.  That is, as measured by number of corps, we are NOT larger than ever.  The good news is that we can be bigger than ever during the coming term of the next general if we pick the right person.

 

Canada and Bermuda C+B 384 / 372 / 311 (about 17% decline) 312 – adding 1 in last 3 years – closed 72 corps in last 53 years

So for the first 35 years (1960-95) C+B lost 12 corps.  In the next 15 C+B lost 61.  C+B has produced 2 generals in the last 18 years.

 

Australia Eastern AE 202  /  208 / 174 (about 12% decline); 162 – dropping 12 in 3 years – about 7% - closed 40 corps in last 53 years

AE actually grew between '60 and '95 before dropping 34 corps in 15 years and then another 12 the last.  AE hosted as TC 2 of the last 4 generals.

 

Denmark DEN 56 / 38 / 32 (around 17% decline); 29 – about 10% loss in last 3 years – closed 27 corps in last 53 yearsDEN is trending steadily down.  The great news for this eurotory is that it has a bunch of cadets, which augurs well for the coming years.

 

France F 53 / 43 / 29 (about a third decline); France and Belgium FB 37 – added a country

F, now FB, is a medium-sized division in some territories, making it a eurotory.  If it joined a few other countries (see Easter Europe Territory) it could save some costs of operation, exploit the commercial union liberties and optimise regional strengths in the salvation war.  F hosted as TC 1 of the last 4 generals. 

 

New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga NZ  97 / 104 / 94 (nearly 1/10 decline); 93 – lost another 1

We've joked in the past that NZ produced a lot of CSs in this new millennium. CSs grow into TCs...  NZ hosted as TC 2 of the last 4 generals.

 

Sweden SW 275 / 197 / 147 (1/4 decline); 114 – staggering 24% decline in last 3 years – closed 161 corps in last 53 years – about 3 / year

This is an absolute tragedy.  The once-mighty SW territory was a generous and sacrificial missionary-sending territory, once of the strongest in the Army.  SW hosted as TC 1 of the last 3 generals.  The crazy thing is, the only SW salvos I know and know of seem pretty keen and committed!

 

Switzerland SWIT 120 / 97 / 65 (about 1/3 decline); 62 – lost 3 in last 3 – closed 58 corps in last 53 years, more than 1/yearSWIT has a glorious history punctuated by persecution and sacrifice.  Even today, they shake the western salvo world with their ‘Eurovision’ spunk.  God help us.

 

Norway NOR 141 / 124 / 111 (about 1/10 decline); 110 – lost 1 – closed 41 corps in last 53 yearsNOR, to be optimistic, has stemmed the tide.  We'll see (not before the High Council).  God grant it. 

 

UK  1018 / 823/ 704 (maybe 14% decline); 697 – lost 1% in last 3 years – closed 321 corps in last 53 years – more than 6/year.

UK hosted as TC 3 of the last 4 generals (and the 4th served there in a reserve appointment).  Oh, and it produced 3 of the last 4, as well.  We admitted that experience in a declining territory doesn't exclude someone from consideration for international leadership.  But neither does service in the oldest territory qualify one.  High Council delegates must look PAST the Service Bio. 

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WAIT - here is some more good news! (with scattered bad news)

 

EA/K/U/Tan 171 / 413 / ke340/kw331/u75/t65(901) (more than doubled in 15 years!) / ke347/kw357/t78/u75(857) – drop of 5% in 3 years!  While the doubling in 15 is huge, the decline in 3 is just as big – this is scary…  So, the old East Africa Territory is now four territories and it more than doubled between 1995 and 2010.  But it dropped 44 corps in only 3 years!  Between then the 4 territories dropped 13+ corps each year!  And this is the heart of the strength of the Army.  Oh, and EA/etc. has produced no generals (though 1 led it).

 

K 68 / 203 / 247 (20% increase in 15 years!) / 254 – 3% increase in 3 yearsGod bless the Koreans.  Oh, and K has produced no generals, though it hosted 1 of the last 5 for a very long time.  Hallelujah.

 

R/Z 194 / 324 / 404 (1/4 increase in 15 years!) / 431 – 7% increase in 3 yearsZimbabwe continues to expand.  Hallelujah.  It produced 0 generals though it hosted 1 for a long time.  Praise the Lord.

 

USE 341 / 331 / 382 (16% increase in 15 years) / 369 – 3% decrease in 3 yearsSo, significant expansion between '95 and '10 has dampened a bit recently (USE has had 3 TCs in that period - coincidental?).  USE has produced 1 general. 

 

USW 170  / 258 / 249 /  257 3% increase in last 3 years, almost back to 1995 level

The big jump in '95 was during a massive campaign (note the similar high numbers below for USW that year) capped by the election of the TC as general.  Though USW has produced 0 generals, it did host the one as TC. Current growth mode is close to the '95 high.

USN 1109 / 1189 / 1252 (<1 1221="" 15="" 2="" 3="" decrease="" in="" increase="" last="" o:p="" years="">

USN has a modest history in this section over the past 53 years.  It has produced 1 general and hosted as TC 3 of the past 6 (and a 4th and 5th served in reserve appointments).

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Active Officers

1960 /1995 /2010 /2013

 

Global 19692 / 17271 / 16938 /  17117

Again, contrary to received wisdom, in terms of number of active officers, we are NOT larger than we have ever been.  We're smaller than 1995 and significantly smaller than 1960.  God have mercy.

 

C+B 1323 / 1395 / 877 (more 1/3 decline or so - in hard numbers, Canada lost more officers than NZ AND Sweden currently have) 817 – loss of 7% in last 3 years – more than 500 active officers down in last 53 years

Significant losses continue. 

AE 752 / 692 / 520 (about 1/4 decline); 531 – a gain of 2% in last 3 years – but general trend is down over 18 and 53 years (total net loss of actives, 221)Praise God for the recent upturn.

 

D 195 / 47 / 37 (nearly 1/4 decline); 31 – loss of 16% in last 3 – lost 158 net in last 53 years, 5x current active strength

Tragic.

F 297 / 126 / 72 (about 40% decline); FB 67 – added a country and still lost 7% - lost 230 actives compared with F alone in last 53 years

Disastrous.

 

NZ 400 / 422 / 316 (1/4 decline); 308 – lost 2/3% in last 3 years – down 98 actives in 53 years

Steady downward trend.

 

SW 904 / 236 / 174 (more than 1/4 decline); 139 – lost 20% in last 3 years! – down 730 actives in last 53 yearsCatastrophic.

 

SWIT 439 / 285 / 187 (more than 1/3 decline); 164 – lost 12% in last 3 years – down 275 in last 53 years

Shocking.

 

NOR 650 / 269 / 182 (about 1/3 decline); 162 – lost 11% in last 3 years – down 488 actives in last 53 years

Disappointing.

 

UK  2130 / 1776 / 1247 (about 1/3 decline); 1149 – lost 8/9% in last 3 years – down 981 actives in last 53 years

Appalling.

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EA/K/U/Tan 370 / 699 / ke422/kw446/u56/t126 (1050) (50% increase in 15 years!) / ke480/kw498/t133/u78/ (1189) – 13% increase in 3 years – increase of 818 actives in 53 years, which doesn't make up for what UK lost but covers a lot of it.

 

K 168 / 465 / 582 (1/4 increase in 15 years!) / 622 – 7% increase in last 3 – increase of 414 in 53 yearsHallelujah.

 

R/Z 358 / 336 / 457 (more than 1/3 increase in 15 years!) / 504 – 10% increase in last 3 – 146 increase in actives in 53 yearsPraise God.

 

USE 1327 / 1050 / 1071 (marginal increase in last 15 but decrease in 50) / 1031 – 4% decline in last 3 years – decrease of 296 actives in 53 years. 

 

USW 595  / 736 / 636 /  652 - 3% increase in last few years; 33% decline in last 18, modest growth over 53.  The current increases are key to blowing up the conventional 'knowledge' about officership in the 'west'.

 

USN 3881 / 3571 / 3443 (marginal decrease) / 3375 – 2% decrease in last 3 years – decrease of 506 actives in 53 years

Before we let USN off the hook, let's note that those long term losses are more than half of the UK's notorious decline.

 

Praise the Lord for Korean, Zimbabwe, and the Kenya territories.  They have carried a lot of the expansion of The Salvation Army (credit to India and Pakistan, not included in these stats, as well).

 

We should reiterate, so that no one gets offended, that we’re not suggesting that only those with the best stats should be considered during the imminent High Council.  But we’re asserting that actual results on the ground – victories and defeats, conversions and casualties, enrollments and AWOLs, commissionings and defections, advances and retreats – these things are all more important than where you lived and what your office door sign said.  Experience can be great but isn’t necessarily.

 

So, we are adding 1960 numbers to the nine territories from AND six more sets of numbers: the old East Africa Territory (now Kenya East, Kenya West, Tanzania, and Uganda Territories), Korea, Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), USA Western, USA Eastern, and combined USA (all four US Territories).

 

This isn’t so much intended to identify who High Council delegates should consider – though it should certainly help in the process of determining that – as to help convince them of the reality of our current situation and the significant strategic advances that a High Council makes possible.

 

We’re looking at cadets, senior soldiers, and junior soldiers:

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Cadets

1960 /1995 /2010 /2013

(? Means that the Year Book didn’t provide the number)

 

Global 997 / 1320 / 1126 / 1188

Interesting that we are way above 1960 levels but lower than 1995. There is no reason that we couldn't have 2000 in the 2014 session.  Oh, if we pick the right leader...

(Now, % for cadets aren’t that meaningful – so keep that in mind in this section)

 

C+B ? / 86 / 35 / 32 – lost 59% in the first 15 years and then 9% in last 3 years

Steady decline.  This is a territory that had three training colleges in the mid 1990s (Toronto, Montreal, St. John's) and now has one.

 

AE ? / 54 / 31 / 43 – lost 43% in the first 15 years and then burst back up 71% in last 3

Praise God for the upturn.  I guess maybe it isn't impossible to recruit officers in the 'west' today!  Go, Commissioner Condon!

 

D ? / 0/0 / 8 – Denmark seems to be on the move – 8 cadets - hallelujahOh, wait - maybe it isn't even impossible in a eurotory!  Hallelujah.

 

F ? / 26 / 0 / FB 0 - tragicGod help us.

* July 7, 2013 - 8 cadets of the Proclaimers of the Resurrection Session were commissioned.

Hallelujah:  www.salvationarmy.org/ihq/news/inr110713

 

NZ ? / 35 / 28 / 29 – 10% reduction in the first 15 years and then increase of 1 in last 3

Let's be optimistic and call it a stop to the decline.  Hallelujah.

 

SW ? / 4 / 12 / 10 longterm gain

Keep building SW, keep building.

 

SWIT ? / 16 / 2 / 5 – 86% drop in first 15 years then 150% increase in last 3

Terrible.  God have mercy.

 

NOR ? / 15 / 8 / 15 – drop then return to 1995 level

We can't sort this out from the available numbers but we give God glory that the current number equals 1995.

 

UK ? / 94 / 79 / 59 – 16% drop in first 15 years then 30% drop in last 3 years

The rate of decline is increasing.  What does that say?  Among other things, it seems that UKI Territory needs something much more than an intervention or even an international congress (and sooner than the 2015 Boundless congress!).

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EA/K/U/Tan ? / 73 / k108/u24 (132) 81% increase in last 15 years / ke25/kw21/t9/u24 (79) -  decrease of 67% in 3 years

Again (as yesterday) - scary recent numbers for the heart of the strength of the Army.

 

K ? / 63 / 59 (under 10% decrease in last 15 years) / 33  What is going on in Korea?  Come on, Koreans!  God help you!

 

R/Z ? / 56 / 40 (more than 1⁄4 decrease in last 15) / 44Look, as we pointed out in yesterday's post, the %s aren't that helpful on cadets because the annual influx of new numbers make the trends fluctuate. However, why are there so few cadets in the last 3 years compared to 1995?

 

USE ? / 101 / 72 (1/3 decrease in last 15 years) / 76

Massive decline that has balanced out in the last 3 years.

 

USW 46 / 104  / 71 /  105 – this is the highest of any of the recorded stats of any territory in this analysis

This might be too easy to note, but we'll do it, in case you aren't reading too closely.  Rader was TC (just becoming general) when the 1995 total of 104 was posted.  And Knaggs is TC in 2013 when the total of 105 is posted.  Praise the Lord.

 

USN 201 / 387 / 262 (nearly 1/3 decrease in last 15 years) / 335 – 28% increase in last 3 years

See above.

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Senior Soldiers

1960 /1995 /2010 /2013

 

Global - ? / 797910 / 1122326 (40% increase in 15 years!) / 1148426For some reason in 1960 we didn't record some stats that we do today (though we still don't report the first time seekers for salvation - the most important stat for a Salvation Army – HC delegates take note).  We grow and grow and grow.  Hallelujah.

 

C+B ? / 24643 / 18866 (about a 1/4 drop); 18090 – a 4% decrease in last 3 years

Steady decline.

 

AE ? / 14062 / 8698 (nearly 40%); 8519; 2% decline in last 3 years

Steady decline.

 

D ? / 1573 / 960 (1/3 decline); 905 – 6% decline in last 3 years

Steady decline.

 

F ? / 1061 / 919 (more than 1/10 decline); FB 1177 – increase with addition of Belgium

 

NZ ? / 6691 / 5565 (18% or so decline); 5358 – 4% decline in last 3 years

Steady decline.

 

SW ? / 8556 / 5321 (about 37% decline); 4098 – 23% decline in last 3 years

Massive decline.

 

SWIT ? / 4726 / 3030 (more than 40% decline); 2670 – 12% decline in last 3 years

Huge decrease.

 

NOR ? / 8177 / 5515 (about 1/3 decline); 4766 – 14% decline in last 3 years

Steady decline.

 

UK ? / 48121 / 31575 (more than 1/3 decline); 28771 – 9% drop in last 3 years

Steady decline.

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Good news...EA/K/U/Tan ? / 138956 / ke69554/kw113030/u5646/t5372 (193602) (39% increase in last 15 years!) / ke72055/kw113409/t6408/u10634 (202506) – 5% increase in 3 years

 

Hallelujah.  Do you know, we hear a lot about programmes and initiatives and projects and slogans and resources and courses that we need to advance the salvation war.  And here's the thing.  I'm pretty connected.  I follow 10s of thousands of people on twitter.  I am maxed on facebook.  I keep abreast of salvospheric happenings.  And I haven't heard of ONE programme or ONE initiative or ONE project or ONE slogan or ONE resource or ONE course from Kenya East or Kenya West or Tanzania or Uganda or Korea or Zimbabwe or any of the SIX India territory or Pakistan.  Not ONE.  And yet these are the territories that consistently expand and advance.  So, do we need more resources and fancy packages and slogans and titles and so on, all developed from territories LACKING consistent expansion and advance?  Do we need more leaders from territories LACKING consistent expansion and advance?  Or could we use a little African and Asian success?

 

K ? / 34799 / 41723 (about 20% increase in last 15 years) / 43877 – 5% increase in last 3 years

Hallelujah.

 

R/Z ? / 63267 / 122513 (nearly DOUBLED!) / 125908 – 3% increase in last 3 years

Hallelujah.

 

USE ? / 18377 / 20975 (about 15% increase) / 21803 – 4% decrease in last 3 years

After good expansion USE dropped off in the last 3 years.

 

USW  14616 / 16787 / 16906 1% increase in last 3 years (reversing a downward trend from 18000 in year 2000).  Hallelujah.

 

USN ? / 81606/ 82010 (marginal increase) / 83979 – 2% increase in last 3 years

Praise the Lord.

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Junior Soldiers

1960 /1995 /2010 /2013

 

Global - ? / 348885 / 378009  / 384694 – steady trend upwards

 

C+B ? / 6613 / 3067 (about 55%); 2533 – 17% drop in last 3 years – massive drop off from 18 years ago

Dreadful.

 

AE ? / 2883 / 490 (about 80% decline); 780 – 57% INCREASE in last 3 years – though still more than 2000 shy of 1995

Ridiculous decline reversed with a sweet increase.  Hallelujah.  Who's the territorial children's secretary there? Captain Steve Smith

 

D ? / 115 / 12 (about 90% decline); 10 – down two Junior Soldiers in territory – decimated in last 18 years

I know an outpost there that could double the territorial outpost next week if so inclined... (I’ve emailed to prompt)

 

F ? / 84 / 80 (5% decline); FB 160 – doubled with addition of Belgium

 

NZ ? / 1255 / 718 (about 40% decline); 828 – 14% increase in last 3 years – but still down 427 from 1995

Who's the territorial children's secretary?  Major Bronwyn Malcolm

 

SW ? / 479 / 125 (more than 3/4 decline); 159 – 27% increase in last 3 years – and down 320 in last 18 years

Who's the territorial children's secretary?  Year Book has ‘Youth’ ‘tba’.  You go TBA!

 

SWIT ? / 482 / 379 (more than 20% decline); 336 – 11% decline in last 3 years – down 146 in last 18 years

Steady decline.

 

NOR ? / 886 / 43 (95% decline); 13 – 70% decline in last 3 years – down 873 in last 18 years

Steady decline.

 

UK ? / 9325 / 5022 (about 45% decline); 3946 – 21% decline in last 3 years – down 5379 in last 18 years

Enormous decline.

 

USW ? 8549 / 5326 / 5420

Who's the territorial children's secretary?  Year Book has Captain Roy Wild as TYS.

 

USN ? / 35825 / 24902 (about 30% decrease!) / 24196 (2013)

We’ll reiterate that we’re not suggesting that the TC with the biggest statistics is necessarily best qualified to be general.  Strategies that lead to decline or that maintain decline must be shed by those whose only experience is decline if they are to be qualified for consideration at the High Council.  But how can we tell that they can shed those strategies and habits and mindsets? 

  

We have outlined the trends in the salvation war and the status of The Salvation Army on representative fronts in theatres of war around the world – in Africa, Asia, Oceania, Europe, and North America. 

 

Globally, the numbers are reasonably reassuring, that despite the threats of false religionism, secularism, hedonism, commercialism (among other ‘isms’) the Army is holding its own and even taking some ground with modest advances numerically in the short and medium term.

 

Under the surface of these acceptable trends and totals, however, the crude overview is that, in the territories we considered, Africa and Asia are prospering (though not without their own concerns), Oceania and North America are struggling (though not without happy exceptions), and Europe is in a calamitous situation.

 

Why talk about this now?

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We’re hoping that we can stir up discussion on the trends and status of the Army so that High Council delegates will consider these issues.  In the normal pre-High Council gathering AND during the High Council itself, there is time and provision to discuss important issues.  And these are important issues.  They should be discussed at the highest levels in the context of prayed-up covering (which the High Council will enjoy from around the world). 

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Why does it matter?

 

Yes, we’re merely 1.533120 million soldiers in a world of 7.1 billion people.  But we believe Catherine Booth’s foundational prophecy for The Salvation Army:

 

“The decree has gone forth that the kingdoms of this world shall become the kingdoms of our Lord and of His Christ and that He shall reign whose right it is from the River to the ends of the earth.  We shall win.  It is only a question of time.  I believe that this Movement shall inaugurate the final conquest of our Lord Jesus Christ.”

 

If she is right, the Army – the Fist of the Body of Christ – is meant to be on the vanguard of the attack.  It is not self-aggrandizement.  It is living up to our calling.  It isn’t to insinuate that we get every person saved while the rest of the people of God stand by and watch – not at all.  We all have different roles.  We’re meant to fulfill ours. 

 

To do that, we cannot gloss over at the High Council the desperate situation of the salvation war in the Europe theatre or the dicey situation in North America and Oceania, nor can we rely on the continued advances in Africa and Asia.  We can’t ignore the challenges in South America and India.  We can’t count on sustained favour on several unstable fronts.  And so on.

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A Dozen ‘MUSTs’

 

We must be intentional and strategic with our operations.

We must be honest and biblical in dealing with sin, weakness, and ‘governing’.

We must be forthight and ruthless in sharpening our mission.

We must be holy and zealous in our evangelising.

We must be patient and persistent in our discipling.

We must be creative and innovative in our tactics.

We must be generous and merciful in our disciplining.

We must be extravagant and extraordinary in our stewardship.

We must be sacrificial and passionate in our praying.

We must be free and reverent in our worshipping.

We must be resolute and stubborn in our covenanting.

We must be loving and forgiving in our reconciling.

 

Half A Dozen ‘SHOULDs’

 

We should pray seriously about valuing;

transparency over confidentiality (confidentiality sometimes descends into cover-up)

prophetic over relevance (relevance sometimes descends into compromise)

holiness over righteousness (righteousness sometimes descends into reputation burnishing)

discipline over legalism (legalism sometimes gets confused for godly discipline)

mission over Army (Army sometimes descends into clubbing)

war-fighting over programming (programme sometimes descends into busy-ness and confrontation avoidance)

 

High Council delegates must

-       get past the excuse of ‘not knowing’ potential leaders and do some homework (we have email, google, facebook, phones, the whole salvosphere…);

-       get deeper than the Year Book and entries in The Officer and not settle for who is best known (two of the last four generals chosen were the most famous salvos in the world for composing a bunch of musicals and the most recent travelled the world as a spiritual life special);

-       get over age issues.  If the best candidate is 73 years old, then pick her/him.  We are allowed to change the specs to permit that.  If s/he is 40, then don’t exclude that pick because of current general term limits (that person can always be elected again at a later high council);

-       get over personality.  We read that Generals Carpenter and Coutts were far from the most charismatic guys in the room  But they carried the day by their character and anointing.

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More comments on those numbers:

 

a. Thank God for the significant advances in Korea and Africa and Pakistan and parts of Asia, and for incremental advance in USA and other areas. Without it we’d be slipping off the map.

 

b. Around 1995, one of the dates in the comparison (along with 1960, 2010, and 2013), Phil Wall started preaching about the decline of the UKI territory and what might happen if it continued. Well, it seems like not enough people were listening, because UKI has been in free fall over the 18- year period.

 

c. During this latter 18-year period we elected no African generals, nor did we appoint any Africans to Western territorial commands. However, we did elect three British Generals (all outstanding Salvationists). At some point we need to ask what value experience in managing decline has for leadership (in that NZF territory has produced a batch of CSs; UKI continues to spurt out TCs/comms; C+B has made a fairly recent international play in CSs/TCs - all despite a record of decline over the period).

 

d. Who is going to be accountable for this? Are the TYSs and children’s secretaries having to wear the Junior Soldier stats around their necks every day at THQ? Are the TCs wearing sackcloth and ashes over the bleeding of soldiers? Are the DCs fasting and praying about how to reverse the decline in corps? Are the Candidates Secretaries resourced and supported in their recruiting? Someone has to step up and take responsibility AND turn us around. (Here's an idea! If we can't find any white-skinned people to do it, maybe we can look in Pakistan and Korea and Africa and India where the Army is aggressively advancing and appoint some of them as TCs and DCs and TYSs and Candidates Secretaries and Chief Secretaries instead of the somewhat steady stream of decline managers).

 

e. The Army is better than this. It deserves better than this. God certainly deserves better than this. If you aren't uncomfortable reading this, you should be, so ask the Lord to make you uncomfortable (and to show you what you should do to help).

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The statistics suggest some of the challenges of The Salvation Army in coming decades. Here are some suggested solutions:

 

Solution a. HQ is not essentially a support or a facilitator or a resource. It is for leadership. (yes, it can support/facilitate/resource, but that is not its essential function). It should lead.

 

Solution b. accountability. In the non-African centres of advance (e.g. Korea and USA) there is accountability. Leaders are required to 'do' certain things and to 'report' on certain things.

 

Solution c. identity. We should see The Salvation Army as a revolutionary movement of covenanted warriors exercising holy passion to win the world for  Jesus. We are not a collection of independent corps or divisions or territories. We are not a church or churches (see Major Harold Hill's FOUR ANCHORS FROM THE STERN in JAC64). We are ‘militant episcopalian’ (CO doesn't run an independent corps but is part of a division led by a DC - etc.).

 

Solution d. universal embrace of covenant. There are 1.533120 million senior soldiers and junior soldiers around the world. If we all embrace our SS and JS covenants then we not only reverse the fragmentation and decline, but we unite to fight in an unstoppable revolutionary force that will smash the enemy on its head.

 

Solution e. holiness. I know that this sounds facile. But JAC readers will know that we're convinced that holiness is the solution to every problem (including statistical decline – we’ve got three books on it – THE UPRISING, HOLINESS INCORPORATED, and BOSTON COMMON).  Paul, Wesley, and Brengle were right. They are right. Let's preach and experience that holiness and see if it doesn't accelerate our advance.

 

Solution f. Leaders lead. We know that some territories advance because enemy is weak there and the church as a whole is advancing. We know that some territories are retreating because the enemy is strong there and the church as a whole is retreating. We know that leadership in the latter territories is probably more difficult than in the former. We are interested in effective leadership against the trends. That is, where is the Army advancing where the church is retreating? In those places, we reckon it is because solutions A-E are in play and that leadership is a key dynamic. We don't need many more managers or administrators (we need some, but not more!). But we do need leaders. And it doesn't matter if they happen to be married women or African. Further, we believe that good leaders' effectiveness can transcend context.

 

Solution g. It is politically correct to include extraordinary prayer in a list of solutions. The thing is, though, that the Army has been the biggest participant in 24/7 prayer to date, with several territories going non-stop for significant periods, and we find ourselves where we are statistically. So, 'prayer' is the spiritually correct inclusion to the list. BUT, it also means more than a sentence before lunch or an extra meeting each week. We're already doing heaps more than we have done in the recent past. Something supernatural and unprecedented is what we're looking for. It is easy to identify and very hard to do. It’s been about 2 ½ years since the Global Call to Non-Stop Prayer.  Have you embraced it?   

 

A lot more can be said of these stats. But for starters, praise the Lord on the increase in soldiers in the last 18 years. Some of this increase in soldiers can be sourced to General Paul Rader, who challenged the Army world for a million marching into the new millennium. It is interesting that he led USW (which had significant growth under his leadership), and served more than two decades in Korea (see their fantastic advance above). So, leaders have effect. But, to other comments:

 

1. Praise the Lord for every person saved in the time period under scrutiny.

 

2. Glory to God for every soldier fighting with covenanted zeal.

 

3. Thank the Lord for every leader faithfully fulfilling God's purposes.

 

4. Credit to God for the favour that the Army enjoys in relation to our warfare.

 

5. Obviously the non-western countries are carrying our global advance. India, Pakistan, Korea, Kenya, and Zimbabwe, among many others, are pushing the Gospel forward with effectiveness.

 

6. They can't rest on their laurels. Even though some of Africa has exploded in the last 18 years under consideration, some there are slipping in junior soldiers - a telling statistic if the children are the future come early. Korea is slipping even more in junior soldiers. God help them reverse that trend.

 

7. We have suggested, possibly somewhat simplistically, that placing a Korean or African leader in charge of a slipping western territory might be the solution to problems. The rare example we have of this is Commissioner Peter Heidong Chang in USW, where there was unusual, accelerated advance. That guarantees nothing with other leaders. But proven ineffectiveness in leadership in a certain theatre of war can strongly suggest more of the same elsewhere, and so it is not unreasonable to imagine that proven effectiveness in leadership in a certain threate of war can strongly suggest more of the same elsewhere (what is it they say about the geographic cure?).

 

8. We reiterate, though, balancing #7, that it isn’t necessarily the leader with the best stats who should lead the global Army.  But the leader chosen to lead the global Army, regardless of country of origin or appointment, should apply strategies that work.  I know that sounds simplistic.  But if we pick a European general, we expect that the general will shed her/his European approaches and strategies to the extent that they haven’t worked, and to apply African or Asian or USW strategies that are working… 

 

9. Those big numbers are just a collection of a lot of small numbers.  A lot of us reading this might figure – ‘this has nothing to do with me.  I’m a soldier at a small corps in _____ville.’  Well, so am I.  And so are most armybarmy readers and others in the salvosphere.  And if each of us is faithful in our warfighting, we’ll see a conversion here and there, and a disciple made here and there, and a victory won here, and an advance made there, and we add up yours and theirs and mine we’ll find more first-time seekers of salvation (SA stat for conversions), more soldiers made, more candidates and cadets, more outposts and corps started, more countries invaded.  Let’s add up the small numbers!

 

10. Prayer is a big immeasurable in this whole discussion.  Yes, we can tally up hours and shifts and war rooms and non-stop prayer initiatives.  But we can’t measure the amount of prayer OR the impact of that praying.  If we all devote ourselves to prayer, who knows what God will do?  But, let’s find out!

 

 

 

  

 

 

   

 

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